Why the Fed is cutting rates sooner than later
The Federal Reserve meets later this week and the market broadly expects a 25bps cut, though some hope for a 50bps cut. A curious development in the eyes of many given the frankly stellar economic data pouring in on the US front, with every metric showing an improvement over the previous month and all but one metric beating consesus: This had some asking whether or not the Fed will cut rates at the FOMC meeting this week and I argue the answer to that question is "yes" and it has nothing to do with the macroeconomic data whatsoever. The Fed is going to cut because they've lost control of the interest rate, and the only way to regain control of the value of money is for them to cede control of the quantity of money altogether. We know this because the effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) climbed over the Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) in March and has stayed there despite two "technical adjustments" to the IEOR during the last two Fed meetings. IOER