Austrian Trader

The Federal Reserve meets later this week and the market broadly expects a 25bps cut, though some hope for a 50bps cut. A curious development in the eyes of many given the frankly stellar economic data pouring in on the US front, with every metric showing an improvement over the previous month and all but one metric beating consesus: This had some asking whether or not the Fed will cut rates at the FOMC meeting this week and I argue the answer to that question is "yes" and it has nothing to do with the macroeconomic data whatsoever. The Fed is going to cut because they've lost control of the interest rate, and the only way to regain control of the value of money is for them to cede control of the quantity of money altogether.  We know this because the effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) climbed over the Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) in March and has stayed there despite two "technical adjustments" to the IEOR during the last two Fed meetings.  IOER

I try my hardest not to be a permabear or to get caught up dooms-day hysteria but the global macro-economic picture is ugly, and the lock-step idiocy of central bankers with their lower-for-longer, ZIRP, and eternal QE jawboning makes one wonder, how bad are things, really? Let's start with the macro data.  Global PMI is hovering just above contractionary levels at 51.2: Record high of 13.2 trillion (with a T!) in negative yielding sovereign debt: Deutsche Bank on the verge of a Lehman-esque style collapse: https://nypost.com/2019/07/08/how-deutsche-bank-could-turn-into-another-lehman-brothers/ And the bond market throwing a fit starting really in November of 18 but finally inverting fully in May of 19': And a dearth of other concerning developments since September of 2018 to now. Yesterday our benevolent monetary overlord (and need I mention unelected and unaccountable) Fed Williams spouted more Keynesian nonsense advocating that we being the process of Japanific